Tag Archives: Autumn Statement

Hope you had a good Christmas. Try not to think about the kipper season.

Preliminary sales results from the big boys have been poor at best. The ‘Big Four’ supermarkets have been fighting off the Germans – Aldi and Lidl – so margins remained wafer-thin. The high street fashion retailers were hammered by unseasonably warm weather and Black Friday never really took off. Biggies like H&M and Next started their sales early (which is a bit worrying given the low rate of inflation and rising disposable incomes). Drastic discounting did not draw in the crowds as expected so when the full Christmas sales results are announced it will be interesting to see the proportion which transferred to online or simply disappeared to online competition. Amazon and Google announced amazing turnover figures for Black Friday with durables, white goods and presents only a click away. Shoppers were still seen browsing High Street shops up to Christmas Eve but more for price-comparison with online and/or to sniff out last-minute bargains. Conversion to sales seems to have been poor with many shoppers preferring to sit in front of their PC with a pile of mince pies.

Lower High Street footfall means lower Market turnover

You might have hoped this would not affect your market but I’m sorry to say that doesn’t appear to be the case. Stallholders do not have the sky-high rents and rates of a ‘bricks ‘n mortar’ high street retailer so are still able to offer real bargains BUT they remain overwhelmingly reliant on footfall. Lower high street footfall means lower market turnover which seems to have affected seasonal Christmas markets as much as weekday general markets. Meat, poultry and fruit & veg. seems to have stood up reasonably well but European traders who came to the UK in search of a strong currency and better sales turnover went home disappointed. Sales turnover on Christmas markets seems to have fallen by at least a quarter.

Those with a decent online presence have definitely held their ground

So who were the real winners? Those with a decent online presence have definitely held their ground. Those selling craft and luxury goods only have done well. My friend trained as saddlemaker in Walsall but threw in that towel to make wallets, belts, dog collars and handbags and only sells online. His sales through Etsy, Ebay, Facebook and website are better then ever. He’s not cheap but works on the theory that no girl can ever be too thin or own too many handbags or pairs of shoes. He took a big gamble and doubled his stock from July but had a cracking good Christmas since. His secrets are low overheads, adding value by product skills and selling online 24/7.

Thank heavens the markets industry is so innovative and resilient

So where does this leave the markets industry? The impact of online retailing and home delivery by DHL is as profound as the introduction of self-service supermarkets was to the corner shop. Thank heavens the markets industry is so innovative and resilient. Sadly, the Chancelllor’s Autumn statement didn’t contain any real goodies for small businesses to reinvest in and develop themselves. But it did confirm your market authority’s worst fears – a further 29% in spending cuts over the next 5 years. The easy cuts have been made already so you can anticipate services like care for the elderly taking priority. Loss-making ‘discretionary’ services like markets are in line for disposal in line with the ‘Big Society’ agenda promoted by David Cameron.

It would be interesting to know how many stallholders have half-embraced online retailing

It would be interesting to know how many Stallholders have HALF-embraced online retailing, but not the right half. Be honest with yourself and admit whether you’ve gone online because you’re too busy selling and don’t have time to sit in the carpark queue at Bluewater (6 hours) or Silverburn (3 hours). Maybe next year you should plan ahead and go online then treat yourself with a post-Christmas weekend holiday in Eastern Europe. Many of their Christmas markets stay open until the Orthodox Christmas on 6th January.

A Christmas when you don’t have to work – whoopee!

When Journalist and Broadcaster Alistair Cooke joined the New York Times he was puzzled by a large sign – KISS – hanging on the wall of the newsroom. His editor explained: ‘Keep It Simple, Stupid. Your readers have 10 minutes on the subway to read and understand your article. Then tomorrow it will be on the bottom of their budgie cage’. The business consultancy Deloitte did just that in December with their annual ‘State of the State’ report published in partnership with independent Think Tank ‘Reform’ it showed the progress the coalition government has made in restructuring the economy after the 2008 financial crisis.

A Deloitte reports suggests that: ‘Councils are likely to move away from providing services they are not legally required to provide ‘ i.e. discretionary services such as Markets.

According to Deloitte/Reform just under half of the necessary spending cuts have been achieved but all the quick fixes – public sector pay freezes and redundancies etc – have now been used up. The second half of the necessary cuts is going to be MUCH tougher. The report suggests that of necessity ‘Councils are likely to move away from providing services they are not legally required to provide ‘ i.e. discretionary services such as Markets. There’s also a nasty sting in the tail with the warning that: ‘Whilst early spending cuts took place in a recession, the coming ones will be in a period of economic GROWTH. Citizens are more likely to experience roads in disrepair, dirtier streets, unkempt parks, and fewer pools and libraries’. The UK may now have emerged from recession and be the fastest-growing economy in the EU but government spending needs to be savaged for years to come. The report suggests ‘the UK’s governance, public sector and citizen experience of public services is likely to change profoundly’ i.e. ring their Contractor, not the Council if your bin isn’t collected on time. The report illustrates the enormous growth in the public sector over the last 50 years which in inflation-adjusted figures has risen from £190 billion in 1964 to £730 billion in 2014. Public sector spending now represents an unprecedented 44% of the UK’s Gross Domestic Product.

£1.4 trillion of debt was borrowed to buy Royal Bank of Scotland to prevent total economic meltdown. This debt continues to rise and costs the taxpayer £1 billion per week in interest payments – more than the government spends on education.

The report steers clear of political point-scoring but does confirm the record annual budget deficit of 2010 meant the government spent £159 billion MORE than it received in income. This annual deficit has now been reduced by about half after the coalition government set itself the ambitious target of eliminating it entirely by 2018/19. Once this has been eliminated by ‘fiscal consolidation’ HMG can start paying back the £1.4 trillion of debt borrowed to buy Royal Bank of Scotland etc and prevent total economic meltdown. This debt continues to rise and costs the taxpayer £1 billion per week in interest payments – more than the government spends on education. If this isn’t reduced then by 2023 the interest payments will be three times greater than total expenditure on the armed forces. Whichever government we have after next May the need to buy-down the debt is so pressing that hoping economic growth will make the problem go away is not an option.

Quarterbridge has unrivalled experience of securing investment and restructuring Markets services to meet the challenges

If you cast your mind back to 2010 you’ll remember the long overdue creation of the independent Office of Budget Responsibility to produce ‘Whole Government Accounts’ for the UK. In retrospect it’s amazing that prior to then there was no set of trading accounts for the government. That’s not exactly the way to run a Business or a Markets Service or Country, but it happens. The good news is Quarterbridge has unrivalled experience of securing investment and restructuring Markets services to meet the challenges.

You can download a copy of the Deloitte report from: http://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/uk/Documents/public-sector/deloitt-uk-state-of-the-state-2014.pdf

When journalist and broadcaster Alistair Cooke joined the New York Times he was puzzled by a large sign – KISS – hanging on the wall of the newsroom. His editor explained: ‘Keep It Simple, Stupid. Your readers have 10 minutes on the subway to read and understand your article. Then tomorrow it’s at the bottom of their budgie cage’. At the beginning of December, just before the Chancellor’s Autumn statement the business consultancy Deloitte did just that with their annual ‘State of the State’ report. It was published in partnership with the independent Think Tank ‘Reform’ to show how much progress the coalition government has made in restructuring the economy after the 2008 financial crisis. It is quite readable provided you have a bottle of gin to hand. You can download a copy from:

http://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/uk/Documents/public-sector/deloitt-uk-state-of-the-state-2014.pdf

‘Keep It Simple, Stupid. Your readers have 10 minutes on the subway to read and understand your article. Then tomorrow it’s at the bottom of their budgie cage’.

According to Deloitte/Reform about half of the necessary spending cuts have now been achieved, BUT all the quick fixes – public sector pay freezes and redundancies etc – have been used up. What’s still to come is going to be MUCH tougher. They suggest: ‘Councils are likely to move away from providing services they are not legally required to provide’ (such as markets) with the sting in the tail that: ‘Whilst early spending cuts took place in a recession, the coming ones will be in a period of economic GROWTH. Citizens are more likely to experience roads in disrepair, dirtier streets, unkempt parks, and fewer pools and libraries’. The UK has now emerged from recession and has the fastest-growing economy in the EU but government spending will still be savaged for years to come. As a retailer your turnover may be on the up but the services your Council provides are going south. The report suggests ‘the UK’s governance, public sector and citizen experience of public services is likely to change profoundly’. Picking up the phone to complain about a pothole is about to become history in the same way that car tax discs have.

Amazingly, prior to 2010 there was in effect no set of management accounts for the government.

The report steers clear of political point-scoring but does confirm the record annual budget deficit of 2010 meant the government spent £159 billion MORE than it received in income. This annual deficit has now been reduced by about half after the coalition government set itself the ambitious target of eliminating it entirely by 2018/19. Success to date has gone down well with our trading partners and particularly the establishment of the independent ‘Office of Budget Responsibility’ which produces ‘Whole Government Accounts’. Amazingly, prior to 2010 there was in effect no set of management accounts for the government. That’s not exactly the way to run a country or a local authority markets service either, but it happens. It’s even less impressive when you consider public spending has soared from £190 billion in 1964 to £730 billion in 2014. It now represents 44% of Gross Domestic Product i.e. business turnover for the UK and you are to blame for much of the problem. You keep getting healthier, more educated and living longer. Have you no shame?

HMG can start paying back the £1.4 trillion of debt which it borrowed to buy Royal Bank of Scotland etc

So once the annual deficit has been eliminated by ‘fiscal consolidation’ HMG can start paying back the £1.4 trillion of debt which it borrowed to buy Royal Bank of Scotland etc and prevent total economic meltdown. That debt continues to rise and costs the taxpayer £1 billion per week in interest payments – more than the government spends on education. The politicians can argue about how the deficit will be reduced – what spending cuts and over how long etc – but if the debt isn’t reduced then interest payments by 2023 will be three times greater than total expenditure on the armed forces.

‘National and local politicians have a duty to engage citizens in constructive dialogue about the changing limits of the state’

The authors of the report then interviewed public sector chief executives who are tasked with finding ways to save the money and implement the next round of cuts. This unwelcome problem has been dumped into their laps so they are less then flattering about their political masters. ‘National and local politicians have a duty to engage citizens in constructive dialogue about the changing limits of the state’ they say i.e. ‘As the elected representative it’s your duty to tell locals why I’m selling-off their playing fields and closing down the care homes’. Whichever government we have after next May the need to balance the books and buy-down the debt is so pressing that politicians won’t be able bury their heads in the sand and wait for economic growth to make the problem go away.

In his Autumn statement George rummaged around down the back of the sofa and found another £2 billion a year for the NHS

In his Autumn statement George rummaged around down the back of the sofa and found another £2 billion a year for the NHS, which was nice. He also introduced tax for companies like Starbucks which shift profits overseas, then cut the ability of banks to offset losses against profits during financial crises. Nicer still and all good tinkering in the run up to the general election to be followed (hopefully) by another last-minute announcement to scrap HS2 to save another £80 billion.

Some markets still make a reasonable profit for their owners but I’m sorry to say an equal number are total basket cases

So what does all this mean for the markets industry? The vast majority of markets are operated by local government as one of those ‘discretionary services’ now in the accountants sights. Some still make a reasonable profit for their owners but I’m sorry to say an equal number are total basket cases. For them any possibility of improvement is further away than ever unless their owners embrace some radical new ideas.

Why doesn’t George Osborne have grey hair?

And finally, if you’re planning to stand for election in May please consider a few other problems you’ll need to resolve as well: More independence and tax-raising powers for Scotland, improving national security and counter-terrorism, addressing immigration and maybe organising a referendum or two which could take the UK out of the EU. Not much really.

Which invites the question: Why doesn’t George Osborne have grey hair?

Q: So why is the Chancellor’s ‘Autumn statement’ made in December?

A: Because they keep messing around with dates and names. Kenneth Clarke had his ‘Summer statement’ in October, Gordon Brown his ‘Pre-budget report’ in November and now George Osborne makes his ‘Autumn statement’ in December.

Q: So WHY does he make it?

A: Since 1975 the Chancellor has been obliged by law to deliver two economic forecasts to Parliament each year – his Budget statement in the Spring and his Autumn statement whenever.

Q: So how is the Budget statement different to the Autumn statement?

A: The Spring Budget deals mainly with taxes whilst the Autumn statement deals with how the money is spent, which is logical. And he makes his Budget speech in March just before the start of the new fiscal year so no-one has time to implement cunning plans and avoid new taxes. The Autumn statement is more of a ‘Budget-lite’ – an update on how the taxes are being spent, with only a few policy announcements. Apart that is from the run-up to the general election when the Chancellor hopes to win support for his Government.

Q: Are there any other differences?

A: Well, the Chancellor is the only person allowed to drink alcohol in the House of Commons chamber, and then only during his Budget speech. If he or any other MP’s are caught boozing in the Chamber at any other time then they’re sent to the Tower of London. They have their own brand of whisky you know, but it’s not very nice.

Q: So all the MP’s are sober enough to understand the Chancellors figures?

A: Sometimes, unless they’ve been in one of the House of Commons’ eight bars beforehand. But don’t worry about the figures – they’ve been checked for accuracy by the independent ‘Office for Budget Responsibility’ established in 2010.

Q: So there’s no possibility the Chancellor could pull a fast one then?

A: Oh come on – this is the OBR, not Tesco’s auditors.

Q: And…?

A: The Autumn figures are seasonally-adjusted.