The bookmakers odds for the May 7th general election are all over the place. The outcome looks the least predictable for decades now that coalition government and fixed-term parliaments have become the norm.
Turnout should be good though as more people tend to vote in a general election if the result is uncertain.
Depending on where you live you could have the choice of up to 12 mainstream parties to choose from: Conservative, Labour, Lib-Dem, SNP etc., plus up to 21 fringe parties such as the Yorkshire Devolution Party and CISTA – which sounds like an unpleasant personal infection. But if you live in the constituency of the Speaker of the House of Commons like wot I do then it’s much more boring. The mainstream guys have a gentlemans agreement not to field a competing candidate so we’ve only got the Greens and UKIP. And Nigel Farage isn’t the candidate here again as last time he had a nasty accident in an aeroplane. Turnout should be good though as more people tend to vote in a general election if the result is uncertain. In 2001 a mere 59% of registered electors bothered to vote after Labour’s previous 1997 landslide win. In 2010 after the financial crisis the figure rose to 65% but not in central Manchester, Leeds or Birmingham where more than half still couldn’t be arsed to vote. Mind you that’s better than in Lithuania where only 37% turned-out for their last general election and a lot worse than in Australia where 94% did so. But in Oz it’s a legal obligation to do your civic duty and vote or you get fined £12 and thrown to the crocodiles.
If you’re feeling as interested as a Lithuanian but want to understand everyone’s policies and impress your mates down at the pub then go to the BBC’s excellent ‘policies at a glance’ website at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/manifesto-guide
‘Which county has created more jobs than the whole of France?..’
MP’s were waiting eagerly in March for the Chancellors pre-election budget. They expected a last-minute knock-down ‘Chancellors special’ but in the event came away disappointed. George Osborne sat back and rested on the Government laurels of the fastest growing post-recession economy in Europe. The Yorkshire Devolution Party (No MP’s, yet) was ecstatic when he announced ‘Which county has created more jobs than the whole of France? The great county of Yorkshire!’. George glossed-over the need to pay-down the governments £1.4 trillion of debt after the deficit has been sorted but did throw in a few morsels such as tax breaks for North Sea oil companies and reduced duty on beer and wine. The only real cheers were for fuel duty (no increase) and abolition of annual tax returns and national insurance contributions for the self-employed. Sadly, George didn’t lift the threshold for Vat registration and boost the ‘engine room of the economy’ as he calls small businesses.
The PM has announced plans for a ‘Northern powerhouse’
The government is definitely twitchy about accusations that a ‘Metropolitan elite’ is running the country and doing ‘nowt for the north’. To do something for marginal northern constituencies the PM has announced plans for a ‘Northern powerhouse’ fuelled by allowing Greater Manchester to keep 100% of the growth in local business rates and benefit from another high speed rail link – HS3. This would extend HS2 from Manchester and Leeds up to Newcastle, but quite how it can be financially-justified is another matter.
‘little more than a costly vanity project’
That has already been pointed out by the Commons Public Accounts Committee and the free-market think-tank the Institute of Economic Affairs. It’s spokesperson described it as ‘little more than a costly vanity project’ which is how Lord Mandelson has described it’s conception in the dying days of the last Labour administration.
The Small Business Rates Relief scheme is extended until 31st March 2016
Anyway, putting aside HS2’s unwelcome lack of a business case the government has moved to safer ground by confirming the Small Business Rates Relief scheme is extended until 31st March 2016. Most market businesses qualify for this waiver on rates payable so if you’re not already receiving it I strongly recommend you check with the rating office at your local council. If the rateable value of your premises is below £6,000 you’ll pay nothing at all and to encourage you to grow into bigger premises you’ll now receive the relief for 12 months after you occupy an additional property. This news was delivered at the same time as Danny Alexander, Chief Secretary to the Treasury announced a ‘radical review’ of the business rates system with its outcome to be announced in 2016. ‘The time has come for a radical review of this important tax. We want to ensure the system is fair, efficient and effective’ he said, which was nice to hear. But those of us with long memories will remember previous government attempts to reform the rating system have been torpedoed by the civil servants of the Valuation Office which employs lots of keen young surveyors to administer the system.
Just as exciting and unpredictable as the result of the general election was the result of this year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Just as exciting and unpredictable as the result of the general election was the result of this year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup. Unfortunately my foolproof system to ‘Back the jockey – not the horse’ came unzipped, yet again. Tony McCoy and Carlingford Lough trundled in at ninth place whilst Nico de Boinville on Coneygree romped home to a well-deserved length and a half victory.
McCoy has announced he won’t be riding at Cheltenham again. I can see a pattern emerging here.